A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
